Selection of recent work that relate to the project.
Ebert, P., Smith, M., and Durbach I. (forthcoming). "Varieties of Risk." Philosophy and Phenomenological Research. pp.1-24. Open Access.
Smith, M. (forthcoming). "Against legal probabilism" in Robson, J. and Hoskins, Z. (eds), Truth and Trial. Routledge.
Ebert, P. (2019). "Bayesian Reasoning in avalanche terrain: a theoretical study."* Journal for Adventure Education and Outdoor Research*, 19(1), 84-95. 2019. Open Access.
Smith, M (2018). "When does evidence suffice for conviction?" Mind, 127(508): 1193-1218. Open Access.
Ebert, P, Smith, M., and Durbach, I. (2018). “Lottery Judgements: a philosophical and experimental study.” Philosophical Psychology, 31(1), 110-138. Open Access.
Smith, M. (2017). "Why throwing 92 heads in a row is not surprising." Philosophers' Imprint, 17(21), 2017. Open Access
Smith, M. (2016). Between Probability and Certainty: What Justifies Belief. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
Ebert, P. and Robertson, S. (2013). “A Plea for Risk” (with Simon Robertson). Royal Institute of Philosophy Supplement, 73, pp. 45-64. 2013. We are grateful to copyright holder Royal Institute of Philosophy for making the paper generally available. The paper is published in: http://journals.cambridge.org/PHS. Open Access
Ebert, P. and Photopoulou, T. (2013). "Bayes' beacon: avalanche prediction, competence and evidence for competence. Modelling the effect of competent and incompetent predictions of highly improbable events". Proceedings of the International Snow Science Workshop (ISSW), Grenoble, France, pp.363-70. 2013. (NOTE: ERRATUM ADDED AUGUST 2018). Open Access.